Policy Disagreement
Students can usually learn a lot from current events. These are the events that truly have an impact.
Why might a president and the head of the central bank disagree? The reasons often relate to the current state of the economy. Factors like economic risks, interest rates, and how sensitive the overall economy (measured by GDP) is to changes in these rates play a significant role.
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Central banks try to manage economic growth by setting interest rates and adjusting the amount of money circulating. Generally, more available money can lead to more spending, which is often seen as a sign of a healthier economy. If money is less, people will trust their inner circle more. They spend more time with their families.
So, why might a central bank act in ways that seem to slow growth? Central bank leaders are typically appointed by the president currently in office. It's often argued that their policies tend to protect the financial interests of established groups, such as high earners and asset holders who receive dividends and capital gains.
Lower interest rates and reduced economic risk generally encourage more investment. For example, cheap loans might make it easier for new restaurants to open, reducing unemployment. However, an existing restaurant owner, who also needs to satisfy their own investors, might actually prefer higher interest rates because it makes it harder for new competitors to enter the market. The owner has to pay back their own investors first.
Governments aim to protect the interests of existing income taxpayers such as equity investors, contributing to economic stability. A president typically needs visible economic growth to improve their chances of re-election and may push for lower interest rates to stimulate the economy with tax exempt debt.
If the government in power had direct control over interest rates, it might be tempted to manipulate them for short-term political gain. This could potentially destabilize the economy, risk businesses defaulting on loans, damage retirement accounts, and even lead to recessions. To avoid this, central bank leaders are usually granted a degree of independence from direct political pressure.
However, the setup isn't perfect and raises complex questions, similar to 'principal-agent problems' seen elsewhere in economics, where one player makes decisions affecting another. Modern economies involve intricate relationships. For instance, unlike simple two-party contracts, many economic actions have indirect effects on third parties. Think about how a university diploma (an agreement between student and institution) indirectly influences what a future employer pays.
Venture funds providing capital for businesses expect a reasonable return on their investment. Tools like patents or special licenses help protect these businesses in market economies. However, protecting established businesses and their equity might make it harder for new entrepreneurs, potentially including those from lower-income backgrounds trying to start similar services elsewhere. This creates a tension for the elected government, which aims to support both innovation and general public welfare.
Economic growth is often fueled by businesses taking on debt, such as issuing corporate bonds, to fund investments like new technology. The success of these investments, like cloud companies buying servers, needs to be viable so the debt can be repaid. High interest rates that undermine a business's ability to operate and meet its financial obligations can harm this process.
These kinds of competing interests among voters contribute to the argument for central bank independence. Sometimes, the overall economy (GDP) might not respond strongly to changes in interest rates - economists call this being 'inelastic'. In such situations, a central bank might try other methods to spread money, like buying government debt directly. However, regulations like the Basel standards (international banking rules) limit how much risk banks can take, which can restrict the flow of money into the economy, even if the central bank changes rates. This creates a complex situation: the financial system, designed partly to protect people's savings, can make it harder for the central bank's interest rates to effectively steer the economy that ultimately supports those savings accounts. This complexity can be difficult for voters to grasp.
Governments must balance the needs and concerns of many different groups within the population they serve. If their policies don't align sufficiently with the interests and risk tolerance of key parts of the economy, including major businesses and their workers, they risk losing support from voters.